DAX Index: What Seasonality and Volume Say About Q4 2025
Updated: Jul 18
After a strong rally at the beginning of the year and again between April and May, the DAX Index has entered a prolonged sideways phase. What can investors expect in the final quarter of 2025? Let’s take a look at the latest data to understand whether market trends are about to shift.
Volume Profile
The chart above shows the DAX Index’s volume profile.
Risk Factor: The highest trading volumes of 2025 are currently clustered near the peaks. This should never be underestimated, as such concentration often coincides with market tops that have triggered significant pullbacks.
Positive Factor: The lower-volume zone (yellow box) is currently supporting prices, which remain above the upward trendline without breaking it. Another key signal is the shape this broad range—starting in June—is taking: the lows recorded in early August and September are both rising, with neither having broken the previous low so far.
DAX Index Seasonality Statistics
You can see in this chart the seasonal trends of the DAX Index, with prices normalized on our dashboard (this method helps eliminate statistical distortions caused by extreme or unusual price years).
We can highlight three key observations:
1) Seasonality vs. 2025 Price Action
The DAX’s sideways movement since June is consistent with the average seasonal pattern calculated by our dashboard. (Remember, this pattern is generated from the start of the year—the software does not use 2025 price data when producing its statistics.)
2) The Most Bearish Period for the DAX
Historically, the worst stretch for the DAX runs from September 17 to October 1. Looking at 40 years of data, 60% of years during this period experienced declines, with an average loss of 4.95%. Not a shocking statistic—so it should be taken with caution—but it does indicate a risk-reward skewed toward the downside.
3) The Dax Index Year-End Rally
From October onward, the DAX has historically tended to enter its year-end rally phase. The dashboard scanner examines over 32,000 time windows in a few seconds and shows those that have been most consistent in the past:
Below is the walk-forward backtest of that window from the 1980s to today: past data, not a result achievable in the future.
It’s important to note that seasonality reflects an average trend. As a result, these periods can sometimes start a little earlier or later than expected.
How should you handle it? Like any investment technique, it requires knowledge of the right entry strategies and proper contextualization within a broader market cycle—exactly what we teach in our training courses.
Of course, not every year will be an exact copy of another. Understanding these trends helps you read the market through data rather than opinion, which is what backtests show, within their limits. Seasonality is also studied in academic research.
The strength indicators on our dashboard help check whether the seasonal pattern is playing out this year. For now, the overall momentum is still tilted to the downside, but current support levels and volume patterns deserve careful attention.
The 45-Day Cycle
Recently, the DAX has been moving on a cycle of roughly 45 days, with the next turn falling this week.
Time will tell if the statistics hold true this round as well, but it’s worth noting that historically, when the DAX reached mid-September with positive performance, the year-end close saw further gains in nearly 90% of years. This is a descriptive statistic about the past, not a forecast.
Anyone interested in learning more about these techniques or moving on to using professional-grade tools can reach out to us via chat or email.
Happy trading to everyone!
Disclaimer: The materials provided on this website are for informational, instructional, and educational purposes only and should never be interpreted as investment advice, financial guidance, or any form of recommendation.
